As Moscow Stalls in Ukraine, Putin's Paranoia Reaches Epic Levels Ahead of Victory Day

The war in Ukraine is not going well for Moscow. But Putin refuses to change course.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin and beauty influencer Victoria Bonya. (Creative Commons 4.0/Kremlin, Creative Commons 3.0/Georges Baird)

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On April 29, Russian leader Vladimir Putin called Donald Trump with an ask: he wanted the U.S. president to broker a cease-fire with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for May 8-9, when Russia would celebrate the anniversary of the Allied victory over the Nazis in World War II. The annual commemoration known as Victory Day has grown in importance under Putin’s quarter-century of rule, legitimizing an autocratic regime that promises a return to a glorious past, but offers no future. In the Kremlin, fears have grown that Kyiv could disrupt the May 9 parade with a drone attack.

Citing “Ukrainian terrorist activity” and “the current operational situation,” for the first time in two decades, there will be no military hardware rolling across Red Square to cheering crowds. Cadets from military institutions will also not take part in the parade. While the government has already cut off mobile access to Western apps like WhatsApp and Google Maps, on May 5, authorities entirely shut off mobile internet in Moscow and St. Petersburg. On May 4, CNN reported that a European intelligence dossier states that Putin fears assassination attempts by members of the Russian elite, and thus has sharply restricted his movements and those for staff who work closely with him, like bodyguards and cooks.

Without a doubt, Putin is paranoid. But, as Joseph Heller wrote in Catch-22, just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t after you. He has reason to fear. His approval ratings have dropped to 71 percent, the lowest since he began the full-scale invasion in 2022. As the war in Ukraine drags on with Russia having no strategy for victory, Putin is facing criticism both from those who want him to escalate in Ukraine and Russians who want him to stop. Pro-war commentators are increasingly vocal about Putin’s failures on the battlefield and the unexpectedly viral Instagram criticism by beauty influencer Victoria Bonya of wartime economic problems and internet restrictions illustrates that many Russians want the conflict to end. Putin has chosen neither to escalate or conciliate, instead muddling through.

Putin has conflated the full-scale invasion with World War II, depicting it as a fight to “denazify” Ukraine, despite the fact that Zelenskyy is Jewish. While this propaganda might have convinced some young men to enlist in a great patriotic struggle like their grandparents did, the comparison is just awkward now. The full-scale invasion has lasted over 1,500 days, longer than the Soviet Union’s 1,418 day war with Nazi Germany. While the Red Army reached Berlin in May 1945, according to the Institute for the Study of War, in 2026, Moscow’s advances slowed to an average of just 2.9 square kilometers per day. (The think-tank added that part of the decline could be due to changing Russian tactics.) In April, Russia suffered a net loss of territory for the first time since August 2024, when Ukraine invaded Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukraine has launched an increasingly daring series of long-range drone attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure; while these attacks have failed to significantly dent oil revenues, the plumes of black smoke from billowing from burning refineries have brought the war home -- or at least to social media feeds -- for many Russians.

The Victory Day celebration for 2025 was the first one to face restrictions due to fears of a Ukrainian attack. Putin announced a cease-fire, although none was reached. Disruptions to mobile internet were reported. However, it passed with no major incidents, and a number of foreign leaders attended, including Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

It is quite possible that this year’s parade will also pass with no major incidents. However, Putin’s call for a cease-fire for his parade is even more cynical this time around, as on the night of May 5, Russia launched a mass attack on Ukrainian civilians, killing at least 27. Zelenskyy had responded to Putin’s call -- which he said was never officially conveyed -- by proposing a cease-fire beginning at midnight on May 6; the Russian attack was hours before Kyiv’s proposed truce. According to The Insider, just four foreign leaders have confirmed to attend the parade, down from over 20 last year. Putin has turned Victory Day into the centerpiece of a state religion that uses World War II to justify present-day aggressive wars; however, as Putin muddles through in Ukraine, he has much to fear.

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