Under Trump, It's Better to be America's Enemy Than Its Friend

Meanwhile, Putin and Kim Jong Un are coming to visit Xi

A U.S. World War II poster demonstrating the U.S.’ commitment to freeing foreign allies. (Photo by Boston Public Library on Unsplash)

The British-American historian Bernard Lewis once quipped that the U.S. is "harmless as an enemy but treacherous as a friend.” Lewis died in 2018, but his aphorism has taken on a new life in Donald Trump's second term. Just this week, the Trump Administration has destroyed a decades-long strategic partnership with India, upended the transatlantic alliance again, and faced claims of running an influence campaign against an ally.

Beginning under the Clinton Administration, successive U.S. presidents pursued closer ties with India, believing New Delhi to be a vital strategic partner against a rising China. However, the relationship faltered as Trump threatened tariffs against India and repeatedly claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has denied that the U.S. had a role in it. 

On August 27, Trump instituted 50% tariffs against India, including a 25 percent tariff for its purchases of Russian oil. China, which purchases larger amounts of discounted Russian oil, was not punished. This is an ineffective punishment against Russia: if India were to halt buying Russian oil, analysts predict that oil prices would spike to $100 per barrel, allowing Moscow to receive more for the oil it illicitly sells elsewhere. Following Trump’s tariffs, India is moving closer to China and Russia: Modi is set to visit Beijing for the first time since 2018 and Russian leader Vladimir Putin is visiting India in the fall.

Last month, EU leaders thought they had escaped Trump's wrath by accepting a 15 percent baseline tariff in exchange for eliminating all European tariffs against U.S. goods. However, this week Trump again threatened the EU with further tariffs over its rules regulating technology companies. EU officials responded that it is their sovereign right to impose taxes on digital services. However, Trump's threats underscore the fragility of the July 27 agreement: trade deals take years to negotiate and run in the thousands of pages, and the EU just has a handshake. Many EU observers decried the handshake agreement as a surrender, but EU officials defended it as a price to pay against further escalation. Now, they are facing further escalation.

Also this week, three Americans — two of whom had worked for Trump — were caught running an alleged "influence operation" in…Denmark.