Trump's War of Choice in Iran Might Save Putin's War of Choice in Ukraine
Relieving sanctions is a huge win for Moscow, and if oil prices stay high, Putin will gain a windfall for his aggressive war in Ukraine
It’s hard to overstate just how much of a reversal of fortune Russia has had since U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched military strikes against Iran on February 28. I last wrote about how much Vladimir Putin has gained from this conflict on March 9, and in the past few days, he has gained even more.
Vladimir Putin is Winning the Iran War
After U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began military operations against Iran on February 28, officials and journalists predicted that Russia would suffer as a result. In a March 4 interview with Newsmax, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
Before February 28, Russia’s economy was in serious trouble due to falling oil and gas prices, rising budget deficits, and needing to keep the war machine against Ukraine funded. Economist Alexandra Prokopenko compared the situation to what mountaineers call the “death zone” -- the altitude above 8,000 meters wherein the human body consumes its own muscles for energy to survive. In other words, the war has had the effect of cannibalizing the wider economy.
In the first two months of 2026, Russia’s energy revenues fell by nearly half and overall revenues fell by 11%, leading to a projected GDP deficit of 1.6% for 2026. (While its deficit is lower than Western countries, Russia is cut off from Western capital markets by sanctions, so it cannot easily borrow.) To alleviate the fiscal crisis, Reuters reported that the Russian government is considering a 10% across-the-board spending cut to “non-sensitive” programs. However, that cut is now on hold -- depending on what happens with global oil prices.
According to an analysis published on March 12 by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia has made an additional 6 billion euros in the two weeks of fighting between the U.S. and Iran. Russia’s 2026 budget deficit is about 38 billion euros, so if oil prices stay high, the deficit could be wiped out. The analysis found that the additional oil revenue could also purchase 17,000 Shahed drones -- which are launched at Ukraine on a near-nightly basis -- every 24 hours at a cost of $35,000 each.
One of Putin’s long-term strategic goals in the war in Ukraine has been to weaken Western sanctions by dividing the U.S. and Europe, which have sought to maintain a united front against Moscow. Trump obliged.
