Trump's Plan for Ukraine Accomplishes What Russia Can't Do on the Battlefield

For the White House, politics is war by other means.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump arguing in the White House on February 28. (Public Domain/White House Rapid Response)

The Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz famously observed that "war is politics by other means." By this, he meant that waging war could accomplish political goals that were otherwise unachievable. However, in its plan aiming to end the war in Ukraine, the Trump Administration has flipped this maxim on its head: here, politics is war by other means. In other words, the Trump Administration plan would give Russia a political victory that it cannot achieve on the battlefield.

The plan, which was leaked to Axios and The Telegraph, is tough on Ukraine, while going easy on Russia. Russia gets de jure U.S. recognition of Crimea, de facto recognition of the parts of sovereign Ukraine which Russia currently occupies, a written promise that Ukraine will not join NATO, the lifting of U.S. sanctions imposed since 2014, and enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly on energy. By contrast, Ukraine gets almost nothing concrete: it gets an unspecified part of territory occupied by Russia in the Kharkiv Oblast, unimpeded passage across the Dnieper River, a “robust” security guarantee with no stated U.S. participation, and unspecified compensation for rebuilding.

This plan would be a huge win for Russia. It would be allowed to keep all of Ukraine's sovereign territory it has taken since 2014 and get to do business with the U.S. With Ukraine not allowed to join NATO and no specifications for an international peacekeeping force (which in this scenario would almost certainly not come into existence), it could freely wage war again on Ukraine.

Given these generous terms for Moscow, one might think that Russia is charging towards victory.