On October 30, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he would direct the Pentagon to test nuclear weapons, reversing decades of U.S. policy. Shortly before meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, he said, “The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country…Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years.” He added, “Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.” The U.S. hasn’t tested a nuclear weapon since 1992.
Like so many of Trump’s announcements, much of what he said was wrong and unclear. Russia has the most nuclear weapons, not the U.S. While China is indeed a “distant third” and researchers say that it is stockpiling nuclear weapons at the fastest rate globally, it won’t catch up to the U.S. and Russia anytime soon. It wasn’t clear if Trump was referring to a nuclear weapons test or a weapons system capable of carrying a nuclear weapon. It wasn’t clear what other country he was referring to: among the top three nuclear powers, China last tested a nuclear weapon in 1996. It’s likelier that Trump was referring to Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s recent test of a nuclear-powered cruise missile, which is not a nuclear weapon. Moreover, the U.S. can’t test nuclear weapons “immediately;” the Congressional Research Service has estimated it would take 24-36 months.
Even if, like many of Trump’s proclamations, this never happens, his message is dangerous. In the same way that Trump’s musings about invading Greenland signal that the international norm against changing borders by force is over, his message signals that the U.S. no longer cares about nuclear nonproliferation.
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