The Mykhailo Fedorov Ouster: What Happens When You Change Horses in Midstream
Summing up a week of political turmoil in Ukraine
Update: Late on the evening of July 18, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on social media that he had spoken with former Minister of Defense Mykhailo Fedorov and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, saying that decisions will be “worked out.” For the first time since Fedorov’s firing, he seemed to be looking for a way out of the crisis, amid growing protests.
“Don’t change horses in midstream” is a 19th-century idiom warning against making abrupt shifts in the middle of a difficult campaign. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ousting of popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after six months in office has shown exactly what happens when you do, in fact, change horses in midstream.
Consider how chaotic the change has been to replace a defense minister for a country fighting a war for its very existence. On July 16, Fedorov automatically lost his post as parliament voted in Zelenskyy’s new cabinet which did not include him. However, while parliament confirmed other posts, Zelenskyy didn’t formally nominate a new defense minister as protests raged on July 17. While Zelenskyy had been expected to choose the current Interior Minister as the new Defense Minister, he instead backed a candidate with experience in the long-range strikes against Russia that Fedorov had championed: acting Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) chief Yevhen Khmara. However, Zelenskyy cannot legally appoint an acting defense minister, while the Cabinet of Ministers can, and it did so on July 18. Parliament, which must vote on Khamara’s appointment, is scheduled only to return in mid-August.
Rest assured, there will not be a test on these details. But they have compounded the anger that many Ukrainians and Western officials feel as they see the ouster as unnecessary, counterproductive, and even threatening to Ukraine’s progress against Russia. When I asked opposition lawmaker Inna Sovsun at the protests on July 17 what needed to happen after Fedorov’s dismissal, she corrected me: “Well, it’s easier to answer the question of what needn’t have happened.”
Behind the paywall, I will answer three questions:
What was Fedorov’s theory of victory?
How might his ouster impact joint military initiatives with the West, including air defense?
What has been the reaction to his ouster among military officials?
I also share photos from the protests, like this one I took of a woman who made a cardboard protest sign for her dog:
