The Greenland TACO Won't Heal the Transatlantic Rift
Trump backed off of Greenland tariffs, but they could be back tomorrow.
Hours after giving a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he repeated his desire to annex Greenland from Denmark, U.S. President Donald Trump backed down. He said on social media that the threat of tariffs on Denmark and seven other European countries who opposed his bid for U.S. control of Greenland was off, and announced the “framework” of a deal over Greenland, the details of which remain unclear. Earlier in his January 21 speech, he said that he wouldn’t use force to take the island. The head-spinning reversals appeared to be a case of TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out.
However, these turnabouts should be of little solace to Europeans for two reasons. First, the threat of force was never on the table because the U.S. doesn’t need it: under a 1951 treaty, the U.S. already has the ability to “construct, install, maintain, and operate” military bases on the island. Moreover, elsewhere in his speech, he threatened Denmark like a mafia don: “You can say yes and we will be very appreciative. Or you can say no and we will remember.” With European countries unable to defend themselves without the U.S. military and its nuclear umbrella, this is a real threat. Second, Trump is so mercurial that he could reinstate the tariff threat tomorrow; for European businesses, having the most important trading relationship dictated by social media posts is unsustainable.
Even though the tariff threat is off the table for now, European leaders are still holding an emergency summit tonight in Brussels. Tomorrow at 11 am CEST/5 am ET, I will be discussing the summit on Substack Live with Dave Keating who writes the Gulf Stream Blues Substack; he will be covering the summit. (You can find the livestream on the Substack app for iOS/Android, or follow with a link here.)
Trump’s rambling Davos speech was a familiar list of grievances, but the cri de cœur for middle powers from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will be one for the history books.
