Take Trump's Threats Against Greenland Seriously

Why did Denmark's prime minister visit 3 European capitals in a day?

A fjord in Greenland. (Photo by Tina Rolf on Unsplash)

Until a few days before Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, I thought the possibility was absurd. I thought that Vladimir Putin was amassing troops as some sort of negotiation ploy. I should have taken Putin at his word when he wrote in July 2021 that Ukrainians and Russians were "one people," and that Ukraine's sovereignty could only be realized "in partnership with Russia."

Similarly, the notion of U.S. President Donald Trump taking control of Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, has seemed absurd until recently. Denmark is an ally of the U.S. in NATO, and the relationship between the two countries has been so uneventful that it was not a topic of public affairs. 

However, Trump has said that owning the island is an "absolute necessity" for U.S. security. Earlier this month, Trump refused to publicly rule out economic coercion and even military force to take Greenland, despite Denmark's offers of boosting the U.S. military presence on the island. Due to warming temperatures, Greenland's Arctic shipping routes, as well as its rare minerals, are of interest to Trump. 

But the shit really hit the fan in a mid-January private call between Trump and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, according to the Financial Times. One European official briefed on the call said: "[Trump] was very firm. It was a cold shower. Before, it was hard to take it seriously. But I do think it is serious, and potentially very dangerous." Another official told the newspaper, "The intent was very clear. They want it." Frederiksen has said publicly that the island is "not for sale."

Following the call, Denmark went on a military and diplomatic offensive. On January 27, Denmark announced it was investing the equivalent of $2 billion in its North Atlantic defense. On January 28, Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen visited three European leaders in the space of a single day: she met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels. While press statements from these meetings said that leaders discussed issues like the War in Ukraine, the urgency of these visits indicated that they may have an ulterior purpose. (Little was said publicly before and after the meetings: the press release from NATO noted that "there will be no media opportunity." Additionally, France said it floated sending troops to Greenland, but Denmark declined.)

Trump's threats towards Greenland echo Putin's threats towards Crimea, an autonomous province of Ukraine which Putin invaded and annexed in 2014. In February 2014, Putin met with his security chiefs and said that Crimea should be returned to Russia, and then a few days later, unmarked Russian forces in conjunction with local paramilitaries took control of the territory's parliament and raised the Russian flag.

It's not unthinkable that the U.S., which thanks to a Cold War-era treaty has almost an unlimited right to establish military bases on Greenland, could seize the massive, sparsely-populated island in a similar way that Putin did with Crimea.