Putin is 'Breadcrumbing' Trump

There's always a 'but' with the Kremlin

Vladimir Putin being interviewed by Tucker Carlson in 2024. (www.kremlin.ru/Creative Commons 4.0)

At first glance, the White House seemed to announce a major step towards ending the war between Russia and Ukraine on March 25. The White House said that both countries had agreed to "eliminate the use of force" on the Black Sea. However, the Kremlin said it would only honor the deal once Western sanctions on Russian agricultural exports were lifted. Hours later, Russia launched a drone attack against the Black Sea port of Mykolaiv. A similar pattern emerged last week: the White House said that both sides had agreed to a halt on strikes against energy infrastructure for 30 days, only for Russia to immediately attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Ukraine then retaliated by hitting Russia's lucrative oil refineries.

In the past two weeks, the Trump White House has made bold proclamations seemingly announcing steps towards ending the war in Ukraine, only for Russia to add caveats and launch strikes against Ukraine. To borrow a phrase from modern dating, Russian leader Vladimir Putin is doing the diplomatic equivalent of breadcrumbing: that is, feigning interest in another person with intermittent gestures while having no interest in a serious relationship. Here, the Kremlin is feigning interest in a ceasefire (the word was not used in the March 25 statements) while playing for more concessions. As in dating, these gestures amount to nil: the war continues at the same pace as before.

The Trump Administration has already made big concessions to Russia without getting anything in return.