Macron Has a Warning About Russia. Will Anyone Hear It?
The French president is the closest thing Europe has to a visionary leader. But he can't execute his vision.
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French President Emmanuel Macron has a warning for Europe: it might "die" if it doesn't build its own defenses as Russia wages war in Ukraine.
On April 25, in a nearly two-hour speech at the Sorbonne, Macron articulated his dark vision that Europe, confronted by an aggressive Russia, "is between war and peace." "Europe must become capable of defending its interests, with its allies by our side whenever they are willing, and alone if necessary,” Macron said. While he welcomed the Biden Administration's commitment to defending Ukraine, he said "the days of Europe…relying on the U.S. for security are over.” He expanded on his vision in a lengthy April 29 interview with The Economist. He said Russia "has become an over-equipped power that continues to invest massively in weapons of all kinds and that has adopted a posture of non-compliance with international law, of territorial aggression, and of aggression in all known domains of conflict." Earlier this year, Macron refused to rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine.
Macron has not always been so alarmist about Russia. In June 2022, he said that Putin shouldn't be "humiliated" over his mistake in invading Ukraine, calling for a diplomatic "exit ramp" for the Russian leader to end the war. However, of European leaders currently, he is perhaps the most free to speak his mind: his second term ends in 2027 and he cannot run until 2032. Other leaders who face elections would rather kick the can down the road.
Macron's warning is prescient. Europe does face the prospect -- either immediately with Donald Trump or gradually with Joe Biden -- of the downgrading of U.S. military support for Europe and Ukraine, and needs to develop its own defense capacities. While the $61 billion military aid bill for Ukraine did pass the U.S. Congress, the six-month delay signaled that U.S. support is unreliable. Russia, meanwhile, shows no signs of wanting to de-escalate its war in Ukraine. As Tatiana Stanovaya, a France-based Russia analyst, recently summed up her off-record talks with Moscow elites, "Nobody is looking for an exit strategy from the war…[they] are proceeding on the basis that Russia cannot afford to lose the war, and to ensure it does not, the country must keep up the pressure on Ukraine, for no matter how long."
While Macron is an articulate messenger in warning about Russia, he is not in a strong position to execute his vision. In Paris, he has no majority in parliament. In Europe, he has few obvious partners who share his vision.
France has hardly been out in front of sending aid to Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, France has allocated less than 2.7 billion Euros for military aid to Ukraine, behind Sweden, the Netherlands, and Denmark. France's bilateral aid to Ukraine accounts for 0.14% of its GDP, less than half of the share of aid from the U.S. and U.K. France-based analysts Joseph DeWeck and Michel Duclos wrote in Internationale Politik Quarterly, "France’s lack of fiscal space is a key reason for why it is subpar when it comes to weapons donations to Ukraine," noting that it is running a budget deficit of 5.1 percent in 2024.
Macron has a frosty relationship with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who could supply Ukraine with more weapons, but won't. Unlike Macron, Scholz plans to run again in 2025. Ahead of June European parliamentary elections his Social Democratic Party (SPD) is running on a peace platform: posters in Berlin feature his picture with the words, "Measure, Middle, and Peace." While Scholz's government claims to support Ukraine "for as long as it takes," his campaign slogan suggests an accommodation with Russia. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and leaders from the Baltic states share Macron's hawkishness. However, due to France not honoring its mutual-defense pact after Poland was invaded during World War II, Warsaw and other Eastern European capitals are skeptical about Paris' commitment to Eastern European defense. As Tusk said on X on the morning of a March meeting with Macron and Scholz: "True solidarity with Ukraine? Less words, more ammunition."
When he leaves office in 2027, Macron won't even be 50 years old. The wisdom in his warnings about Russia might someday make him something of an elder statesman. With three years left in his term, he still has time to execute his vision, but doesn't have the political capital, money, or allies to do so.