Letter From Beirut: Lebanon Cannot Afford a War With Israel
Insights from a trip to a country on the brink of war
Update (7.29): On July 27, a rocket from Lebanon landed in northern Israel, killing 12 and wounding 20. The U.S. and Israel said the rocket came from Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia that operates out of Southern Lebanon. I am removing this July 25 post from behind the paywall because the fears of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah have grown substantially.
Dear Readers,
Last week, I traveled to Beirut, Lebanon to attend a friend's wedding. Many guests decided not to come because of tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia which operates out of southern Lebanon. Since October 7, Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, has launched thousands of rockets on northern Israel and Israel has launched thousands of rockets on southern Lebanon. These tit-for-tat attacks have killed hundreds, displaced thousands, and threatened to escalate into an all-out war.
I can't say whether a full-scale war will happen. Dexter Filkins of the New Yorker as well as the New York Times and Wall Street Journal have excellent coverage of this story. However, my week in the country -- going nowhere near the south -- gave me one insight into this conflict: Lebanon really cannot afford it.
Since 2019, Lebanon has been in one of the worst economic crises in the past 150 years. During the 2010s, in a bid to attract foreign investment to keep the Lebanese Pound's dollar peg, the central bank offered double-digit interest rates on bonds. To pay the interest on these bonds, it issued more bonds. This effort, which has been called a Ponzi scheme, finally collapsed in 2019. Next, Lebanon endured the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Beirut's port suffered a catastrophic explosion in 2021; it remains visibly damaged. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 ratcheted up food and fuel prices. According to the International Monetary Fund, the currency has lost 98% of its value, GDP has contracted by 40%, inflation has run in the triple digits, and two-thirds of the country's foreign currency reserves have been depleted. 80 percent of the population lives below the poverty line and 36 percent of the country lives in extreme poverty of less than $2.15 per day. The central government is nowhere to be seen: the country has not had a president since 2022 and the prime minister is a caretaker.
On my trip, the economic devastation was apparent. The airport is dirty and there isn't much air conditioning. I used U.S. dollars to pay for anything above $5; the Lebanese Pound's largest denomination is less than a dollar. The roads have not been maintained regularly since 2019. Electricity went off for hours at a time; like many residences, my Airbnb had a generator. Begging children were ubiquitous and aggressive. Multiple Lebanese people told me they had lost all of their savings.
In spite of the crisis, the country's Mediterranean shoreline, Cedar forests, and historical sites turned it into a tourist destination: indeed, it is stunningly beautiful. However, tourism is completely divorced from local realities: beach clubs charge between $25 and $40 for admission, while Human Rights Watch estimated the average monthly wage is $122. Since October 7, tourism has plummeted, and this summer has seen a wave of cancellations.
A full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel would be a disaster for Lebanon. Lebanon has estimated that one million people would be displaced for 45 days. Already struggling water, power, and telecommunications infrastructure would be destroyed, as well as the country's only international airport. However, a truce in Gaza -- which U.S. officials say is near -- between Hamas and Israel may pave the way for the de-escalation of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.
Lebanon is one of the friendliest countries I have visited; the people I met were warm, funny, and generally seemed to be enjoying life. They don't deserve years of economic mismanagement, endemic corruption, and political paralysis, let alone a full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel.